Will “Good Afternoon” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Good Afternoon” was said at the White House press briefing on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 8/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Good Afternoon
- Probability
- 47% · n=8
- Settled
- 8/8 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
All right. Good afternoon, everybody. So before taking questions, I thought it made sense to, since it is me here, the attorney general, to just…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
All right. Good morning, everybody. I guess, good afternoon now. Good to see you guys. So let me give a few updates on a few…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Good afternoon, everyone. Good to see you here today. Good morning, Gabe. We'll begin today with a few scheduling announcements. Later this afternoon, President Trump…
Good afternoon, everyone. It's great to be back with all of you. It's good to see you, good to be in this room. I'm glad…
Good afternoon, everybody. Feel like I'm talking to a classroom. I've got a couple of announcements, then I'd love to take some questions for you.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Good Afternoon |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Good afternoon |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Good Afternoon” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Good Afternoon” was said at the White House press briefing on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 13, 2025.
- What is the probability “Good Afternoon” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Good Afternoon’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/good-afternoon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=good%20afternoon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP