Will “Inflation” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (33%), most recently on Feb 12, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Inflation 5+ times
- Probability
- 38% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…1.2 percent since President Trump took office, with average annual earnings outpacing inflation by $800. Under Biden, real wages fell nearly 4 percent, with the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a few things. First of all, if you look at how endemic inflation became during the Biden administration -- and -- and this is not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Trump predicted: prices are falling, and this administration's economic policies are working. Inflation dropped 0.4 percent last month, beating expectations and marking the largest monthly…
…million people. Their economy is in a freefall. They have sky high inflation. And fundamentally, about $1 trillion of damage to their industrial base was…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…60 day ceasefire to continue that? And then second, how fast could inflation then recede or retreat, or is inflation sticky because the PCE was…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2025 | Inflation 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Inflation 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Inflation 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Inflation 5+ times |  Kalshi | No | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Inflation 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (33%), most recently on Feb 12, 2025.
- What is the probability “Inflation 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Inflation 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/inflation-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=inflation%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP