Will “Border” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Border” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2024 (33%), most recently on Feb 25, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Border 5+ times
- Probability
- 38% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…agenda of lower taxes, higher wages, and one of my favorites, secure borders. But it doesn't stop there. President Trump is planning to hold rallies…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…easy to use for parents at home. Finally, let's turn to the border. Brand new numbers this week from the Department of Homeland Security and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | Border 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 15 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 1 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Border 5+ times |  Kalshi | No | 3 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Border 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Border” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2024 (33%), most recently on Feb 25, 2025.
- What is the probability “Border 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Border 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/border-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=border%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP