Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 19, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
Markets
23 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear 2+ times | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 61%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 50%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| F-35 / B-2 | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Princess | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | Yes | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| War 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 44%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| UFC / America 250 | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 48%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left Lunatic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Stabbed in the ass | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-saudi-investment-forum-on-november-19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP