Donald Trump: Keynote, Feb 19, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at the Miami investment conference?
Markets
11 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 10+ times | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billion 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | Yes | 16%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Kickback | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Canada 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-miami-investment-conference · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP