Will Donald Trump say “Crypto”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crypto” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (25%), most recently on Mar 3, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 1¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crypto
- Probability
- 42% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | Crypto |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Crypto |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Crypto | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crypto”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crypto” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (25%), most recently on Mar 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crypto” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crypto’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crypto (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crypto · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP