Will JD Vance say “Poison”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Poison” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (33%), most recently on Aug 28, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Poison
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…voted for it 13 times in the past. The Democrats put this poison pill in there, this partisan pill. Why? Because they are beholden to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Poison”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Poison” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (33%), most recently on Aug 28, 2024.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Poison” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Poison’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/poison (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=poison · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP