JD Vance: Rally, Oct 8, 2024
Polymarket What will Vance say during Detroit rally?
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fired | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FEMA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Second Chance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mamaw | Yes | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Poison | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Aurora | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Salt/SALT | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Springfield 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Haitian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Helene | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hillbilly | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trans | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tampon | No | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-vance-say-during-detroit-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP