Will Gavin Newsom say “Climate Change”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Climate Change” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 12, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Climate Change
- Probability
- 33% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | Climate Change |  Kalshi | No |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Climate Change | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Climate Change | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Climate Change | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Climate Change”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Climate Change” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (25%), most recently on Nov 12, 2025.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Climate Change” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Climate Change’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/climate-change (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=climate%20change · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP