Will “Nuclear” be said at the next Congressional hearings?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the Congressional hearings on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 4, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

49%from settlement history only · n=5counts: any witness
Last 10
2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
any witness
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Congressional hearings

Nuclear

Probability
49% · n=5
Settled
2/5 (40%)

Next listing counts: any witness

We don’t have transcripts for Congressional hearings yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the witnesses say during Senate Muslim Brotherhood hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during Senate Artificial Intelligence hearing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Deception hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during House AI Workforce hearing? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during House UN Accountability hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during House Shipbuilding hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during House Oversight of Financial Crimes hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will witnesses say during House CLARITY Act hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the witnesses say during the Senate Drug Supply Chain hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 30, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Jul 24, 2026NuclearKalshiNo
Jul 15, 2026NuclearKalshiYes
Jul 14, 2026NuclearKalshiNo
Mar 4, 2026NuclearKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Nuclear” said at the Congressional hearings?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the Congressional hearings on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 4, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026.
What is the probability “Nuclear” is said at the Congressional hearings next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any witness.

Cite parrot.markets, “Congressional hearings: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/congressional-hearings/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=congressional-hearings&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=congressional-hearings&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP