Congressional hearings, Mar 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on US Military readiness?
Markets
18 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recruit / Recruitment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hegseth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP