Will “Survive” be said on MrBeast next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Survive” was said on MrBeast at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 10, 2025 (36%), most recently on Nov 11, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
MrBeast
Survive
- Probability
- 29% · n=14
- Settled
- 5/14 (36%)
- Last 6 episodes
- said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Survive |  Polymarket | No |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Survive | Polymarket | No |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Survive | Polymarket | No |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Survive |  Kalshi | No |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Survive | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Survive / Survives | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Survive | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Survive” said on MrBeast?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Survive” was said on MrBeast at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 10, 2025 (36%), most recently on Nov 11, 2025.
- What is the probability “Survive” is said on MrBeast next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “MrBeast: ‘Survive’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/mrbeast/words/survive (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mrbeast&word=survive · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mrbeast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP