MrBeast: Episode, Aug 16, 2025
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during next video?
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survive / Survives | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Feastables 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chocolate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribes | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Surprise | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bathroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blast / Bomb | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tunnel / Cave | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insane | No | 29%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-mrbeast-say-during-next-video-746 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP