Will “Ceasefire” be said on The Rachel Maddow Show next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on The Rachel Maddow Show in 2 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 13, 2026 (17%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

35%from settlement history only · n=12counts: the host
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
the host
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-rachel-maddow-show&word=ceasefire

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Rachel Maddow Show

Ceasefire

Probability
35% · n=12
Settled
2/12 (17%)

Next listing counts: the host

We don’t have transcripts for The Rachel Maddow Show yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Sam Altman say during CNBC: Squawk on the Street? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Rachel Maddow say during her show? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 3, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
Jul 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes
Jul 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
Jun 8, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
Jun 1, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
May 25, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
May 18, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
May 11, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
May 4, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
Apr 27, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
Apr 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes
Apr 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Ceasefire” said on The Rachel Maddow Show?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on The Rachel Maddow Show in 2 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 13, 2026 (17%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026.
What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said on The Rachel Maddow Show next time?
35%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: the host.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Rachel Maddow Show: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-rachel-maddow-show/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-rachel-maddow-show&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-rachel-maddow-show&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP