The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
18 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Prison / Camp | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP