The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jul 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Graham / Platner | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 24%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUL13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP