The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, May 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
18 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballroom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Kimmel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Secret Service | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold Card | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lincoln | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manifesto | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Powell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 32%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26MAY04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP