The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Apr 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
13 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prison / Jail | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Orban | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP