The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jun 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prison / Camp | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Michelle / Obama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP