The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jul 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
14 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 57%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUL06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP