The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Aug 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
15 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Cornyn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IRS | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Primary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blanche | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 46%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fauci | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 26%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26AUG03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP