The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Apr 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
24 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | Yes | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Prison / Jail | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Orban | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DoorDash / McDonalds | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pakistan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Allah | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26APR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP