The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, May 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Lincoln | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26MAY11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP