The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jul 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | Yes | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 40%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 24%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 52%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 28%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUL20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP