The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jun 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 250 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUN22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP