Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on The Last Word in 2 of 13 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 3, 2026 (15%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

39%from settlement history only · n=13counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability
39% · n=13
Settled
2/13 (15%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Apr 7, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Apr 6, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes
Apr 2, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Mar 31, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes
Mar 24, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Mar 19, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Feb 24, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Feb 17, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Feb 14, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Feb 10, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo
Feb 3, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on The Last Word in 2 of 13 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 3, 2026 (15%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026.
What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on The Last Word next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP