Will “Iran” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (27%), most recently on Apr 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

38%from settlement history only · n=11counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=iran

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Iran

Probability
38% · n=11
Settled
3/11 (27%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Mark KellyotherThe Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell (MS NOW), October 5, 2026 · Oct 5, 2026 · 20:41In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 15, 2026IranKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2026IranKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Apr 7, 2026IranKalshiYes
Apr 6, 2026IranKalshiNo
Apr 2, 2026IranKalshiNo
Mar 31, 2026IranKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026IranKalshiYes
Mar 24, 2026IranKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026IranKalshiNo
Mar 6, 2026IranKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026IranKalshiNo
Feb 24, 2026IranKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Iran” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (27%), most recently on Apr 7, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran” is said on The Last Word next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP