Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on The Briefing next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Briefing in 9 of 21 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 38% · n=21
- Settled
- 9/21 (43%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 9 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 21 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on The Briefing?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Briefing in 9 of 21 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on The Briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP