Jerome Powell: Speech, Apr 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Powell say at the ECC?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dollar | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Employment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Growth | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Production | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spending | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yield / Curve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stagflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJPOWMENTION-25APR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP