Will “Key” be said on Survivor next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Key” was said on Survivor in 9 of 22 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (41%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.

38%from settlement history only · n=22counts: the host
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
the host
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API

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GET /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=key

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Survivor

Key

Probability
38% · n=22
Settled
9/22 (41%)

Next listing counts: the host

We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the contestants say during Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

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What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12? · settled no

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What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · settled no

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What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 9? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 9? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 22 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 13, 2026KeyKalshiNo
May 6, 2026KeyKalshiNo
Apr 29, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Apr 22, 2026KeyKalshiNo
Apr 15, 2026KeyKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Apr 1, 2026KeyKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Mar 12, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026KeyKalshiYes
Dec 18, 2025KeyKalshiYes
Dec 11, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Nov 20, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Nov 13, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Nov 6, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Oct 30, 2025KeyKalshiYes
Oct 23, 2025KeyKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025KeyKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Key” said on Survivor?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Key” was said on Survivor in 9 of 22 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (41%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
What is the probability “Key” is said on Survivor next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: the host.

Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Key’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/key (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=key · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP