Will “Fire” be said on Survivor next time?

As of Oct 23, 2026, “Fire” was said on Survivor in 16 of 24 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.

61%from settlement history only · n=24counts: the host
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
the host
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=fire

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Survivor

Fire

Probability
61% · n=24
Settled
16/24 (67%)

Next listing counts: the host

We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the contestants say during Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Season 50 Finale? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 9? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 9? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 24 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 20, 2026FireKalshiYes
May 13, 2026FireKalshiYes
May 6, 2026FireKalshiNo
Apr 29, 2026FireKalshiYes
Apr 22, 2026FireKalshiYes
Apr 15, 2026FireKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026FireKalshiYes
Apr 1, 2026FireKalshiYes
Mar 25, 2026FireKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026FireKalshiNo
Mar 12, 2026FireKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026FireKalshiNo
Feb 26, 2026FireKalshiYes
Dec 18, 2025FireKalshiYes
Dec 11, 2025FireKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025FireKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025FireKalshiNo
Nov 20, 2025FireKalshiNo
Nov 13, 2025FireKalshiYes
Nov 6, 2025FireKalshiYes
Oct 30, 2025FireKalshiYes
Oct 23, 2025FireKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025FireKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2025FireKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Fire” said on Survivor?
As of Oct 23, 2026, “Fire” was said on Survivor in 16 of 24 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 20, 2026.
What is the probability “Fire” is said on Survivor next time?
61%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: the host.

Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Fire’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/fire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=fire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP