Will Donald Trump say “Nobel / Medal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Nobel / Medal” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 20, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel / Medal
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…settled I've settled eight wars. Think of that. Did I get the Nobel Prize? No. DID I GET THE NOBEL PRIZE? EXCUSE ME. BYRON, did…
…than any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…boxing in the whole thing last time and they both won gold medals. Shockingly, they both won gold medals. But men from playing in women's…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | Nobel / Medal |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel / Medal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Nobel / Medal” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel / Medal” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel / Medal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/medal-or-nobel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=medal%20%2F%20nobel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP