Will Donald Trump say “Springfield”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Springfield” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 13, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

48%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=springfield

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Springfield

Probability
48% · n=6
Settled
3/6 (50%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 31, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketNo
Sep 21, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketNo
Sep 17, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketNo
Sep 13, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketYes
Sep 12, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketYes
Sep 10, 2024SpringfieldPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Springfield”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Springfield” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 13, 2024.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Springfield” next time?
48%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Springfield’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/springfield (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=springfield · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP