Will Donald Trump say “Moderator”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moderator” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 12, 2024 (25%), most recently on Sep 13, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Moderator
- Probability
- 47% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Moderator”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moderator” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 12, 2024 (25%), most recently on Sep 13, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Moderator” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Moderator’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/moderator (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=moderator · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP