Will Donald Trump say “Poll”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Poll” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

58%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Poll

Probability
58% · n=4
Settled
3/4 (75%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 32:25In transcript

…period of time. That's what they say. You're going to see a poll later on. They rate the presidents in terms of their greatness. I'm…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 4:26In transcript

…the way. You're both doing great. But we still have to get out and vote. But you both I looked at some polls. Very impressive.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 28:23In transcript

…good numbers for me, too. I get good numbers. I get good polls. But I'm not running, but I am running, right? You remember? But…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:38:03In transcript

…out about the real man. And -- and you probably saw the polls. He's now leading, and he was down by quite a bit. But…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jul 29, 2026PollPolymarketYes–
Jul 28, 2026PollPolymarketYes2
Mar 8, 2026PollPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Nov 12, 2025PollPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Poll”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Poll” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Poll” next time?
58%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Poll’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/poll (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=poll · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP