Will Donald Trump say “Transgender / Women's Sports”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender / Women's Sports” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 3, 2025 (33%), most recently on Sep 3, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Transgender / Women's Sports
- Probability
- 38% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…an ounce stood for 19. He comes along bing bing boom boom boom. Oh, is that all? How crazy is this? Men and women's sports
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…inclusion policies throughout the federal government. We got critical race theory and transgender insanity out of our schools. And we made English the official language…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them transgender if they want, without parental without parental consent. I would say she's…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…with that record. Turk voted to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents and with no parental consent. I didn't even…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…in the entire country. It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Transgender / Women's Sports |  Polymarket | No |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Women's Sports / Transgender | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Women's Sports / Transgender | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Transgender / Women's Sports”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender / Women's Sports” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 3, 2025 (33%), most recently on Sep 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Transgender / Women's Sports” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Transgender / Women's Sports’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/transgender-or-womens-sport (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=transgender%20%2F%20women%27s%20sport · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP