# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-03-31 · 21 words · P p:what-will-trump-and-melania-say-during-chicago-opening-night · as_of 2026-10-27T05:03:42Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-31 · tn/th blank: transcripts exist, but the market's speakers are not attributed in them · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-and-melania-say-during-chicago-opening-night (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald or Melania Trump say the listed term during their appearance at Chicago Opening Night on March 31, 2026.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Iran	iran	85	56	0.66	nYnYYYYnnY	0.66	hist
SAVE Act / Save America Act	save act|save america act	14	10	0.71	YYYnYnnYYY	0.64	hist
Democrat	democrat	112	77	0.69	YnYnYYYnYY	0.63	hist
Sleepy / Biden	biden|sleepy	0	0			0.61	hist
Trump	trump	51	31	0.61	YYYYnYYYYY	0.56	hist
250 / 250th	250|250th	3	3	1	YYY	0.55	hist
Deal	deal	8	7	0.88	YYnYYYYY	0.51	hist
Filibuster	filibuster	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.46	hist
Movie star	movie star	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.46	hist
Hottest	hottest	187	97	0.52	YYYnYnnnnY	0.45	hist
Chicago	chicago	13	5	0.38	nnYYYnnnnY	0.43	hist
Tremendous	tremendous	1	1	1	Y	0.42	hist
Transgender / Women's Sports	transgender|women's sport	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.39	hist
Strait / Hormuz	hormuz|strait	0	0			0.34	hist
Ceasefire	ceasefire	31	7	0.23	nnnYYnnnYn	0.3	hist
Ballroom	ballroom	41	11	0.27	nnnnYnnnYn	0.23	hist
Ahead of schedule	ahead of schedule	0	0			0.4	prior
Billy / Roxie	billy|roxie	0	0			0.4	prior
Marble	marble	0	0			0.4	prior
Plan	plan	0	0			0.4	prior
Seat	seat	0	0			0.4	prior