The New York Times (front page): Front page, Jul 12, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 6 - July 12)
Markets
23 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| House | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woman | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reserve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Liberation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Moon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shocking | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rigged | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Senate | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-nyt-front-page-headlines-say-this-week-july-6-july-12-20260703145630749 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP