Will “Ukraine / Ukrainian” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ukraine / Ukrainian” appeared on the NYT front page on 6 of 7 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 12, 2026 (86%), most recently on Sep 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 6.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Ukraine / Ukrainian
- Probability
- 54% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
3 counted.
Ukraine Acclimates to Subterranean Classrooms
Civilian Toll Climbing in Ukraine and Russia
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Tanks Languishing in Ukraine
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Ukraine / Ukrainian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does “Ukraine / Ukrainian” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ukraine / Ukrainian” appeared on the NYT front page on 6 of 7 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 12, 2026 (86%), most recently on Sep 2, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ukraine / Ukrainian” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Ukraine / Ukrainian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/ukraine-or-ukrainian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=ukraine%20%2F%20ukrainian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP