Will “Senate” appear on the next NYT front page?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Senate” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 6 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 4.

38%from settlement history only · n=6counts: anyone
Last 10
0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 6 times
Counts
anyone
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=senate

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Senate

Probability
38% · n=6
Settled
0/6 (0%)
Last 8 front pages
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Tuesday, October 20otherNYT front-page headlines, October 19–25, 2026 · Oct 25, 2026In transcript

G.O.P. in Ohio Shifts Message In Senate Race

Saturday, October 17otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

What Maine Rivals for Senate Share: Roots in the Wilderness

Sunday, October 11otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

Senate Control May Rest in Shivering Hands of Mainers Mad Over Heating Costs

Tuesday, September 29otherNYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

Run for Senate Reflects Her Complex Politics and Origin Story

Friday, September 25otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

Polls in Senate Battlegrounds

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 26, 2026SenatePolymarketNo
Jul 19, 2026SenatePolymarketNo
Jul 12, 2026SenatePolymarketNo
Jul 5, 2026SenatePolymarketNo
Jun 28, 2026SenatePolymarketNo
May 31, 2026SenatePolymarketNo

Questions

How often does “Senate” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Senate” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 6 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026.
What is the probability “Senate” appears on the NYT front page next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Senate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/senate (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=senate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP