Will “War” appear on the next NYT front page?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” appeared on the NYT front page on 5 of 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 24, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.

51%from settlement history only · n=5counts: anyone
Last 10
5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 5 times
Counts
anyone
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=war

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

War

Probability
51% · n=5
Settled
5/5 (100%)
Last 8 front pages
said in 8 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Monday, October 19otherNYT front-page headlines, October 19–25, 2026 · Oct 25, 2026In transcript

Math World on ‘War Footing’ Over Incursions by A.I. Models

Thursday, October 15otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

Even Bananas Absorb Blows Of War in Iran

Monday, October 5otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

New Flares Amid U.S.-Iran War Defense Turns on This Metal Faith, Love and Action

Wednesday, September 30otherNYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

A Journalist Watches War Come for Her Home

Monday, September 21otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

A Faraway War Brings Guyana An Oil Windfall

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 26, 2026WarPolymarketYes
Jul 19, 2026WarPolymarketYes
Jul 12, 2026WarPolymarketYes
Jul 5, 2026WarPolymarketYes
May 24, 2026WarPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does “War” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” appeared on the NYT front page on 5 of 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 24, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026.
What is the probability “War” appears on the NYT front page next time?
51%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/war (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP