Will “Iran” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” appeared on the NYT front page on 13 of 13 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Iran
- Probability
- 67% · n=13
- Settled
- 13/13 (100%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
Even Bananas Absorb Blows Of War in Iran
Citing Iran, Campaigns Single Hegseth Out
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
New Flares Amid U.S.-Iran War Defense Turns on This Metal Faith, Love and Action
Shadow Fleet for Iran’s Oil
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
Trapped Between Iran and Washington as It Wrestles Militias
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Iran |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 31, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 10, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 3, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does “Iran” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” appeared on the NYT front page on 13 of 13 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP