Will “Fear” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fear” appeared on the NYT front page on 7 of 10 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 5, 2026 (70%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Fear
- Probability
- 59% · n=10
- Settled
- 7/10 (70%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
Fear in the Heart of Kyiv
Diners Revere Him and Owners Fear Him
Counts: anyone
3 counted.
Activists Fear a Shift in Focus Could Alter Priorities
Congo’s Deep Ebola Fears National Parks System Turmoil He’s Ready for Takeoff
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Ex-Generals Are Among Israelis Voicing Fears
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fear |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Fear | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does “Fear” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fear” appeared on the NYT front page on 7 of 10 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 5, 2026 (70%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Fear” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Fear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/fear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=fear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP