The New York Times (front page): Front page, Jul 26, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 20 - July 26)
Markets
24 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 64%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| State | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Win / Winner | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woman | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Strait | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fear | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| House | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Vehicle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fatal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reserve | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Liberation | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shocking | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Senate | No | 22%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-nyt-front-page-headlines-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260718184724813 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP