What is the probability “State” appears on the NYT front page next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “State” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “State” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “State” appeared on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 26, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 5.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Last said: Jul 21, 2026
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

State

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Wednesday, October 7otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

Finances and Far Right Imperil Welfare State

Wednesday, September 16otherNYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026In transcript

STATES PRESS ON WITH MAIL VOTING ON COURT’S ORDER

Wednesday, September 9otherNYT front-page headlines, September 7–13, 2026 · Sep 13, 2026In transcript

Squeezed by State Law and a Trump Threat

Monday, August 31otherNYT front-page headlines, August 31–September 6, 2026 · Sep 6, 2026In transcript

How 47 States Cornered Meta On Teen Safety

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jul 26, 2026	State	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does “State” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “State” appeared on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 26, 2026.
What is the probability “State” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘State’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/state (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=state · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP