Will “Risk” appear on the next NYT front page?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Risk” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 3 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 26, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.

46%from settlement history only · n=3counts: anyone
Last 10
2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
anyone
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=risk

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Risk

Probability
46% · n=3
Settled
2/3 (67%)
Last 8 front pages
said in 8 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Friday, October 16otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

Fewer Timber Sales Risk Fires Still Inspiring Connections

Monday, October 5otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

A.I. Appraises Risk of Getting Breast Cancer

Wednesday, September 30otherNYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

Breach at F.B.I. Leaves Workers Fearful of Risks

Tuesday, September 22otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

A.I.’s Runaway Risk

Friday, September 18otherNYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026In transcript

DEEP-RED AREAS AT RISK FOR G.O.P. IN THE MIDTERMS

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 16, 2026RiskPolymarketNo
Aug 9, 2026RiskPolymarketYes
Jul 26, 2026RiskPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does “Risk” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Risk” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 3 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 26, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026.
What is the probability “Risk” appears on the NYT front page next time?
46%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/risk (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP