Lemonade Stand: Episode, Jul 15, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (July 15)
Markets
20 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actually | Yes | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Money | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Problem | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Think | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Red | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Green | No | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nordic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Car / Vehicle | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Legality | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Collateral | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-july-15-20260709163957166 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP