# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-30 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN30 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:40:01Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-30 · tn/th last 4 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-06-18 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN30 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: The Ingraham Angle , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Trump	trump	3	3	1	YYY	4	4	0.58	hist	yes
California	california	14	9	0.64	nnnYYYnYYn	4	1	0.56	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	1	1	Y	4	0	0.47	hist	yes
Biden	biden	48	31	0.65	YnnYnYnnnn	4	3	0.44	hist	no
Iran	iran	11	5	0.45	nnYnYnnYnY	4	2	0.44	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	26	16	0.62	YnYYnYnnnn	4	2	0.43	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	14	5	0.36	nnnnYYnnYY	4	2	0.38	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	10	4	0.4	YYnnYnnYnn	4	2	0.35	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	3	1	0.33	nnY	4	4	0.35	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	28	13	0.46	YnnnnYnnnY	4	2	0.33	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	25	6	0.24	nnnYYYnnnY	4	1	0.33	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	11	3	0.27	nnYnYnnnnY	4	1	0.32	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	30	15	0.5	YnYnnnnnnn	4	2	0.31	hist	no
Election	election	20	8	0.4	YnYnYnnnnn	4	0	0.31	hist	yes
250	250	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	4	0	0.21	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	21	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	4	0	0.12	hist	no
Reflecting / Pool	pool|reflecting	0	0			4	0	0.38	prior	no