# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2025-09-21 · 27 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25SEP21 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:24:53Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-21 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25SEP21 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Charlie Kirk Memorial at State Farm Stadium on September 21st, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Election	election	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Political Violence	political violence	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	no
Debate	debate	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	2	1	0.5	nY	0.48	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.42	hist	no
Free Speech	free speech	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Antifa	antifa	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Assassinated	assassinated	0	0			0.42	prior	no
College / Campus	campus|college	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Constitution	constitution	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Faith	faith	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
FBI	fbi	0	0			0.42	prior	no
God	god	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Heaven	heaven	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Horrific	horrific	0	0			0.42	prior	no
President	president	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Radical Left	radical left	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Republican	republican	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Roof	roof	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Student	student	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	0	0			0.42	prior	no
TikTok	tiktok	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Transgender	transgender	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Turning Point	turning point	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Unite	unite	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Youth	youth	0	0			0.42	prior	no