# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-11-01 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25NOV01 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:31:34Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25NOV01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 12:00pm ET Oct 1 and before Nov 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	17	9	0.53	YnYYYYYYnY	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	15	6	0.4	nnYYYYYnnn	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	15	7	0.47	YYnYYYnnnn	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	6	3	0.5	YnnYnY	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	8	3	0.38	nnYnnYnY	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pelosi	pelosi	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
AOC	aoc	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moscow	moscow	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	22	9	0.41	nnnYnnnnYn	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Taylor / Swift	swift|taylor	1	0	0	n	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	8	1	0.12	Ynnnnnnn	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hunter	hunter	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	23	3	0.13	nnnYnnnnnn	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	159	11	0.07	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.33	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bird	bird	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Clapper	clapper	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Whack Job	whack job	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1